The Cross-Strait Diplomatic Tug of War in LAC

This chapter examines the geostrategic competition between China (PRC) and Taiwan (ROC) for diplomatic recognition in Latin America and the Caribbean. Once a stronghold of Taiwan&s;s international partnerships, the region has become a primary battleground where Beijing leverages economic statecraft – trade access, infrastructure finance, political pressure, and in some instances corruption – to persuade governments to adopt the One-China principle. Since 2016, Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Honduras have shifted recognition to Beijing, shrinking Taiwan&s;s global allies to twelve, seven of them in the Americas. Using the frameworks of complex interdependence, realism, and dependency theory, the chapter explains why states switch – and why some may reconsider. While many governments view ties with Beijing as pathways to development and geopolitical relevance, cases like Honduras and to a certain extent Panama reveal mounting concerns about trade imbalances, debt exposure, and sovereignty costs. Meanwhile, Taiwan counters with “soft infrastructure” diplomacy – targeted development aid, technology partnerships, and democratic solidarity. The chapter argues that the trend of Taiwan losing diplomatic recognition in LAC may be changing, shaped not only by Chinese inducements but also by non-ideological considerations of national interests, domestic politics, economic recalculation, and fears of new dependency.