Assessment and pathways of the energy production revolution in the Yellow River Basin, China towards carbon peaking: a machine learning approach.

Under the dual pressure of global warming and the energy crisis, the energy production revolution is central to achieving China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. The Yellow River Basin, a strategically vital region for national energy supply, plays a critical role in this transition, with its progress directly impacting energy security and ecological sustainability. This study develops an energy production revolution index (EIT) based on four dimensions-cleanliness, low-carbonization, security, and efficiency. We employ a stacking ensemble model and a Lasso-based extended STIRPAT-ridge regression model, combined with scenario analysis, to predict the trends in the effects of the energy production revolution and carbon emissions in the basin from 2025 to 2045. The findings reveal that: (1) From 2010 to 2023, the EIT index for the entire basin, hydro-rich provinces, wind-rich provinces, and PV-rich provinces increased from 55.0 to 65.5, from 72.9 to 85.2, from 45.2 to 53.6, and from 46.8 to 57.6, respectively. All exhibit a continuous upward trend, yet a considerable gap remains compared to the Excellent level. (2) Against the backdrop of carbon peaking, the optimal pathways for the energy production revolution in the entire basin and the three types of major provinces exhibit heterogeneity. The structural synergy scenario proves most effective for the entire basin and wind-rich provinces, while a foundational innovation scenario is optimal for hydro-rich and PV-rich provinces. Projected carbon peaking years are 2028-2030 for the entire basin and hydro-rich provinces, and 2027-2029 for wind-rich and PV-rich provinces. By 2045, under the optimal pathways, the EIT index for the entire basin, hydro-rich, wind-rich, and PV-rich provinces is projected to reach 90.5, 98.4, 83.0, and 89.8, respectively, with the former two reaching the Excellent level and the latter two reaching the Good level.(3) Significant spatial disparities in carbon emission trajectories and transition effectiveness exist among the nine provinces within the basin. Finally, a practical pathway is developed for the basin-wide energy production revolution, supporting the Yellow River Basin's timely carbon peaking goals.