Gravitational-wave Observations Suggest Most Black Hole Mergers Form in Triples

Abstract The spin-orbit tilt angles θ 1(2) of merging stellar-mass black holes provide key insights into their astrophysical origin. Nonparametric population modeling by The LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA Collaborations shows that the spin-orbit tilt distribution of mergers in the latest Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 4.0 exhibits a global peak at near-perpendicular directions cos θ 1 ( 2 ) ≈ 0 . Here, we recover this feature using hierarchical Bayesian inference with parametric models that are tailored to enhance the diagnostic power about astrophysical formation channels. We find that the spin distribution of the low-mass bulk of the binary black hole merger population ( m 1 ≲ 44 . 3 − 4.6 + 8.7 M ⊙ ) can be well modeled by a dominant Gaussian component that peaks at cos θ 1 ( 2 ) ≈ 0 , possibly mixed with a subdominant isotropic component. Models that include a component with spins preferentially aligned with the orbit are disfavored by current data (with Bayes factors ∣ Δ ln B ∣ ≈ 1 –3) and constrain its contribution to be likely small ( ξ ∼ O ( 1 ) % ), although large contributions cannot yet ruled out with certainty. If these findings are reinforced by more detections, they would challenge any major contribution from the traditional isolated-binary formation scenario yielding closely aligned spins. Instead, the dominant component with near-perpendicular spins matches expectations from the evolution of isolated massive stellar triples in the galactic field, where the Lidov–Kozai effect naturally produces a unique overabundance of mergers with cos θ 1 ( 2 ) ≈ 0 .