Unusually Hot Interiors Could Reconcile the Missing-methane Problem for Warm-to-hot Exoplanets with Hydrogen Atmospheres

Abstract JWST is revolutionizing the field of exoplanet atmospheres by delivering unprecedented spectroscopic constraints on their chemical compositions. It has provided tight constraints on the abundances of dominant carbon- and oxygen-bearing species on numerous warm-to-hot exoplanets with hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Under thermochemical equilibrium, many of these exoplanets should have abundant methane (CH 4 ); however, CH 4 has, so far, only been spotted in a few cases. Here, we present a simple, geochemistry-inspired framework to explore whether elevated intrinsic temperatures ( T int ) can account for the CH 4 depletions. Instead of using computationally expensive, forward grid models, our fast analytical framework focuses on two key chemical equilibria: CO–CH 4 and CO–CO 2 , allowing us to quickly constrain the minimum T int that is consistent with JWST-observed abundances of H 2 O, CO, CH 4 , and CO 2 . Applying this framework to 12 warm-to-hot exoplanets, we find that several targets require minimum T int values exceeding those predicted by standard evolution models, while others remain consistent with lower T int solutions or exhibit degeneracies with other solutions. Our sample enables an initial exploration of population-level trends: while many exoplanets broadly follow an empirical T eq – T int relation derived from the hot-Jupiter mass–radius population, a subset of targets lie well above this trend. The apparent need for hotter interiors suggests that, while Ohmic dissipation is probably an important heat source among the general population, additional heating processes, such as tidal heating, may also play important roles for some planets. Our results demonstrate the diagnostic power of atmospheric chemistry as a complementary probe of exoplanet interiors.