Transformation of domestic fish and seafood exports in the context of foreign economic restrictions

The relevance of this study is due to the need to assess structural adaptation and identify new risks in one of the key export-oriented sectors of the domestic agro-industrial complex – the fisheries sector — in the context of changing geopolitical and foreign trade conditions aſter 2022. The purpose of the work is to identify the nature and assess the consequences of the structural transformation of geographical and commodity flows of fish and seafood exports from Russia caused by the introduction of foreign economic restrictions. The methodological basis of the study is a comparative dynamic analysis of statistical series for the period 2014– 2024. The results obtained indicate a profound qualitative restructuring of the export model. The key conclusion is the transition from a polycentric geographical diversification to a model with a critical dependence on the Chinese market, which has reached 50%. In parallel, the accelerated commodity transformation with an advanced the growth in the share and unit value of high-margin categories (crustaceans, fish fillets). Thus, despite successful short-term adaptation and growth in value volumes, the industry is facing new strategic risks associated with high sales concentration and increased dependence on the narrow segment of expensive products. The practical significance of this work lies in the fact that its findings indicate the need to adjust the export development strategy, focusing on restoring geographical diversification and creating conditions to overcome price and commodity dependence on a single market.