Diagnosis and reduction of institutional imbalances in the innovation cycle under the conditions of digital technology development in the Republic of Tatarstan

Aim. This work aimed to develop and test a methodology for diagnosing institutional imbalances in the innovation cycle using the Republic of Tatarstan as a case study, as well as to determine directions for reducing these imbalances by harnessing the potential of digital technologies. Objectives . To present the author’s four-stage matrix of the innovation cycle, integrating key indicators and types of institutional imbalances; to analyze the dynamics of key innovation indicators of the Republic of Tatarstan, their normalized values, and the region’s share in all-Russian indicators; to identify and classify institutional imbalances by comparing actual growth rates with the normative model; to formulate proposals for the creation of pilot digital institutions. Methods . The study is based on a tripartite approach: institutional theory (actors engaged in innovation activity have different motives, which require different institutions for their successful support), innovation theory (matrix representation of the stages of the innovation cycle), and strategic management theory (the principle of subordination of growth rates). The empirical basis consists of data from Rosstat and Rospatent for the Republic of Tatarstan for the period 2014–2024. Results . First, an original, authorial concept for diagnosing the innovation cycle is proposed, consisting of four main stages: the generation of an innovative idea, the promotion of the innovation through the work of the innovation infrastructure, the realization of the innovation on the market through the activities of a small innovative firm, and the scaling and diffusion of the innovation. For each stage, key statistical indicators are identified, whose growth rates must be hierarchically interconnected (balanced) with one another. At the same time, the growth rates of preceding stages must outpace the growth rates of subsequent stages in order to ensure expanded reproduction of innovations. Growth rates are an indirect quantitative characteristic of the institutional wellbeing of each stage of the innovation cycle. If the hierarchy (balance) of growth rates is disrupted as the innovation moves from stage to stage, this indicates problems in the institutional support of commercialization processes. Second, a diagnostics of the author’s integral innovation index for the Republic of Tatarstan, consisting of four indicators reflecting the aggregated stages of the innovation cycle, was conducted. In particular, an increase from 7,23 in the first five-year period (2015–2019) to 8,21 in the second (2020–2024) is observed. The region’s share in allRussian indicators increased across all areas of innovation activity assessment, namely: in research and development expenditures (from 1,51 to 2,02 %), in the number of patents (from 3,7 to 4,13 %), in organizational expenditures on innovation activity (from 5,72 to 8,9 %), and in the volume of innovative products (from 10,82 to 13,23 %). The analysis of growth rates of innovation indicators in the Republic of Tatarstan allowed for the identification of four types of institutional imbalances (D1–D4). The dominant imbalance is D2 (stagnation of the innovation infrastructure), identified in seven out of 17 cases over the ten-year period under analysis. Conclusion . The institutional imbalances examined lead to the inefficient functioning of the innovation cycle at all stages of commercializing an innovative idea. The identified positive dynamics indicate systemic progress in the innovation economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. From 2014 to 2024, imbalances D1, D3, and D4 received the greatest support from development institutions and were reduced. These imbalances arise when the effectiveness of the scientific sphere declines (low quality of patents), when support for the real production sector declines (lack of investment in modernization), and when feedback flows from commercialization back to science decline (lack of motivation for innovation activity). The most persistent imbalance proved to be D2, which arises when investments in the commercialization of innovations in innovation infrastructure objects increase while the flow of intellectual property objects simultaneously decreases. Eliminating this imbalance will be possible through the digital transformation of institutions, that is, the creation of pilot digital platforms and programs. The key link should be a network of digital technology transfer centers, integrating databases (including through the use of artificial intelligence) for automated search for industrial partners, crowd-investing mechanisms for attracting financing to venture projects, and blockchain systems for protecting rights to intellectual property objects. The implementation of the proposed measures will make it possible to move from fragmentary support for innovations to the formation of an integrated, self-reproducing innovation ecosystem capable of ensuring the technological sovereignty of the Republic of Tatarstan and, prospectively, of the Russian Federation.