Enhancing PV system modeling accuracy with the irradiance intensity selection technique

Abstract This study is a method to improve the accuracy of photovoltaic (PV) power modeling by the irradiance intensity segmentation. The developed model was compared with 2 years of data from PV system in Thailand and the original 1D5P and weight function models to determine accuracy. The results show that by applying the irradiance intensity selection technique with a 1D5P equivalent circuit model improved the accuracy of the proposed model. The proposed method achieved a significantly lower %root mean square error (%RMSE) compared with other models yielding %RMSE values of 0.26% under clear-sky and 2.80% under cloudy conditions. Seasonal evaluation further demonstrated improved prediction accuracy, with the lowest deviation observed during the rainy period, attributed to reduced dust accumulation. A 2 years comparison confirmed the proposed model exhibited the lowest deviation of 0.69%, outperforming conventional PV simulation programs. These findings indicate that irradiance segmentation enhances forecasting performance and provides accurate PV output estimation under real environmental conditions.