Relationships Among Groundwater Depth, Vegetation Dynamics, and Evapotranspiration in an Arid Basin: Identification of Groundwater-Dependent Vegetation Ecosystems and Ecological Reference Thresholds

In arid and semi-arid regions, groundwater plays an important ecohydrological role in sustaining ecosystem stability under climate-warming-induced surface-water uncertainty. Disentangling precipitation and groundwater recharge effects on vegetation growth remains challenging, limiting robust identification of groundwater-dependent vegetation ecosystems (GDVEs) and quantitative ecological groundwater level estimation. Taking the Daihai Basin, a typical inland closed-lake basin, as a case study, we integrated multi-source remote-sensing data (2005–2025) with in situ groundwater monitoring to develop a comprehensive framework for ecohydrological response analysis and management quantification. Using an improved Mann–Kendall test together with spatiotemporal correlation analyses, we analyzed the spatial relationships between vegetation dynamics and groundwater depth. Results show: (1) basin-wide vegetation exhibits a greening trend (Sen’s slope = 0.00014) with spatial heterogeneity; (2) vegetation dependence on groundwater displays a clear threshold behavior, with low-cover areas (fractional vegetation cover, FVC < 0.3) showing relatively strong groundwater dependency (r = 0.698) whereas high-cover areas exhibit a weaker relationship; and (3) approximate ecological groundwater reference thresholds are estimated as 1.0 m (90% assurance) for forest land and 0.6 m for grass land (80% assurance). The proposed GDVE identification scheme provides a scientific reference for adaptive groundwater management and ecological assessment.