Overcoming Technological Lock-In: How External Pressure Reshapes Innovation Trajectories in the Age of AI

Amid the increasingly stringent technological blockade imposed by some Western developed countries, and against the backdrop of rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and emerging Industry 5.0 paradigms, enhancing indigenous innovation capabilities and overcoming key technological bottlenecks has become an urgent imperative. Drawing on path dependence and path creation theories, as well as the Stimulus–Organism–Response (SOR) framework, this study develops an analytical framework to examine how technological blockade accelerates indigenous innovation in latecomer countries. Using a multiple-case study design, the proposed framework is examined through two strategic technology domains: generative artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles (NEVs). Data were collected through technical documentation, publicly available interview materials involving key stakeholders, and third-party reports. The findings indicate that technological blockade accelerates the transition from imitative to indigenous innovation in latecomer countries. Further mechanism analysis reveals that the external pressure formation mechanism, endogenous motivation activation mechanism, and innovation behavior transformation mechanism jointly constitute a pressure-driven transformation mechanism. Specifically, technological blockade, as an external stimulus, disrupts the existing path-dependent state of imitative innovation; the blockade-induced pressure activates the endogenous motivation of innovation actors, which is further reinforced under national foundational conditions and policy guidance; and under the combined influence of external pressure and endogenous motivation, innovation actors’ behaviors undergo significant changes, gradually shifting from reliance on external technologies and resources toward indigenous R&D and breakthroughs in key technologies. This process ultimately drives the transition from imitative to indigenous innovation, marking a shift from path dependence to path creation. By demonstrating how technological blockade accelerates the transition of the innovation trajectory, this study offers theoretical insights for latecomer countries facing external technological constraints and provides policy implications for building resilient innovation ecosystems and enhancing technological autonomy in the era of AI-driven industrial transformation.