Xinyi Qi, Guangnian Xiao, Lang Xu
Digital technologies are increasingly promoted as enablers of decarbonization and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) compliance in shipping, yet adoption remains constrained by high upfront costs, uncertain returns, supply–demand mismatch, and the risk of symbolic ESG disclosure and greenwashing. This study develops a collaborative governance framework to explain how technology provision, enterprise adoption, and public regulation co-evolve under ESG constraints. We construct a tripartite evolutionary game involving technology providers, shipping enterprises, and the government, incorporating ESG-driven market preference, technology matching efficiency, supply- and demand-side subsidies, regulatory intensity, greenwashing detection and penalties, and system-wide ESG benefits. Replicator dynamics and equilibrium stability analysis are used to derive convergence conditions, and numerical simulations together with system dynamics are employed to examine adjustment paths and convergence speed under alternative policy scenarios. Results indicate that a high-compliance equilibrium emerges when the net benefits of supply and adoption are positive and regulatory benefits offset enforcement and subsidy costs. Matching efficiency is identified as a key friction that slows diffusion and delays convergence even under favorable ESG market signals. Subsidies reduce cost pressure on both supply and demand sides, while greenwashing penalties and effective detection strengthen compliance incentives and accelerate convergence. Overall, the findings suggest that policy packages combining targeted incentives with credible enforcement are more effective than single-instrument approaches, and that improving technology–business fit is essential for transforming ESG pressure from external compliance into sustained internal adoption.