Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Land Surface Temperature, Vegetation Cover, and Built-Up Areas Using LST, NDVI, and NDBI in Balıkesir, Türkiye (1985–2025)

This study offers a four-decade evaluation of land surface temperature (LST) dynamics in relation to urban growth in Balıkesir, Turkey, between 1985 and 2025. Using multi-temporal Landsat imagery (30 m), LST, NDVI, and NDBI maps were generated and assessed through Pearson and partial correlation analyses. MODIS and Sentinel-3 datasets (1 km) were additionally employed to enable comparative analysis. Results reveal robust and statistically significant correlations: urban expansion amplified LST, while vegetation provided consistent cooling effects. Unlike MODIS and Sentinel-3, Landsat data accurately captured localized hot and cool spots, highlighting the importance of spatial resolution in urban climate studies. Temporal patterns reveal a post-2005 decline in NDVI under increasing urban pressures and a subsequent deceleration of built-up expansion after 2015. Mean LST increased from 41 °C in 1985 to 52 °C in 2025, with the hottest temperature class covering over half of the study area. These findings not only confirm the intensification of urban-induced warming, but also contribute a novel methodological framework that integrates multi-sensor, multi-scale datasets into long-term analyses. The study extends the literature by linking remote sensing outcomes directly to urban resilience strategies, emphasizing the role of blue–green infrastructure and climate-sensitive planning in mitigating future thermal risks.