Estimating Global Instantaneous Near-Surface Air Temperature from Clear-Sky Landsat 8/9 Observations Using Ensemble Machine Learning

High-resolution estimation of global near-surface air temperature (Ta) is essential for investigating microclimates, ecosystem processes, and agricultural suitability. However, sparse in situ observations do not capture local heterogeneity, whereas existing datasets lack fine-scale detail because of their coarse spatial resolution. To address this limitation, we developed an ensemble machine-learning framework using Landsat 8/9 data. Predictions from LightGBM, XGBoost, and CatBoost were combined through Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which assigns probabilistic weights to individual models to improve robustness. The models were trained using a globally distributed spatiotemporal matchup dataset that paired HadISD in situ Ta observations with MODIS/VIIRS products to support subsequent Landsat-based application. Key inputs included land surface temperature (LST), vegetation indices, elevation, solar zenith angle, and spatiotemporal features. The BMA ensemble achieved strong validation performance, with an RMSE of ~3 K, near-zero bias, and an R2 of 0.92. Feature-importance analysis identified LST as the dominant predictor, underscoring the primary role of surface thermal state in estimating Ta. The proposed method can generate robust global Ta fields at 90 m resolution, revealing fine-scale thermal patterns that have previously been difficult to resolve at the global scale. Unlike many regional models calibrated for single study area or dependent on dynamic external auxiliary fields, our Landsat-predominant application framework supports operational mapping of clear-sky and overpass-time Ta. Such detailed instantaneous data can advance climate research, improve assessments of ecological responses and climate impacts, and support applications such as urban heat island monitoring and precision agriculture.