Rice Yield Estimation Based on Machine Learning Applied to UAV Remote Sensing Data

Accurate in-season rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield prediction is crucial for improved nitrogen management and climate-smart decision making, yet rigorous comparative benchmarking of machine learning (ML) models using multi-temporal UAV spectral data with independent temporal validation remains limited. This study systematically evaluated four ML algorithms (Random Forest, XGBoost, Neural Network, and Linear Regression) and two Bayesian model averaging ensembles for rice yield prediction using UAV multispectral imagery. Field experiments spanning three growing seasons (2023–2025) at Louisiana State University comprised 9–10 varieties and six nitrogen rates (0–235 kg N ha−1; 576 plots). Vegetation indices and spectral bands from three growth stages were extracted as predictors. Models were compared using 300 random train–test iterations with systematic hyperparameter optimization, followed by independent validation on 2025 data. Among the individual models, XGBoost achieved the highest internal accuracy (R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 0.85 t ha−1), substantially outperforming Linear Regression (R2 = 0.66, RMSE = 1.32 t ha−1), while reduced BMA reached R2 = 0.89. XGBoost demonstrated robust temporal generalization (R2 = 0.62, NRMSE = 8.47%) despite environmental variation. The Enhanced Vegetation Index and Normalized Difference Red Edge at 90 days after planting (reproductive stage) were the most stable predictors across 300 iterations. Tree-based ML models substantially outperform traditional linear approaches, providing reliable pre-harvest yield forecasting for operational precision rice production.