Nesrine Gafsi
This paper examines the impact of natural resource rents on the economic growth of Tunisia between 1990 and 2023, emphasizing the aspect of resource diversification. The annual time-series data extracted from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to outline both the short- and long-run dynamics. The results confirm the existence of a long-term relationship between economic growth and oil, natural gas, mineral, and forest rents. Among them, oil and forest rents have strong positive long-term impacts, whereas natural gas and mineral rents contribute relatively moderately due to the structural inefficiencies and absence of value-added activities in these sectors. It was also found that the labor force participation has been affecting growth adversely with continuous impacts, which are driven by skill mismatches, low productivity, and high unemployment, hence indicating structural labor market imbalance that weakens the growth effect of labor. On the other hand, capital formation is still one of the key drivers of long-term growth. The findings highlight the rationale for diversification of the economy, governance reforms, and sustainable management of resources. However, the study suffers from some limitations due to data availability and excluded institutional variables, apart from being narrowed to a single-country case study, which might affect the generalizability of the results. Future works could consider incorporating the indicators of governance, examining nonlinear effects, or expanding the analysis into a multi-country framework.