Degradation Law of Mechanical Properties and Long-Term Compressive Strength Prediction Model of Unsaturated Polyester Resin Concrete in Aqueous Environments.

Unsaturated polyester resin concrete (UPC) exhibits high strength and corrosion resistance, and it has been widely used in hydraulic engineering structures. However, the diffusion of water molecules inevitably induces matrix plasticization and debonding at the aggregate-resin interface, which leads to progressive degradation of mechanical performance under long-term aqueous service conditions. To elucidate the water-induced mechanical deterioration mechanism of UPC and to develop a temperature-adaptive model for long-term compressive strength prediction, we prepared UPC specimens using graded quartz sand aggregate, an unsaturated polyester binder, V388 curing agent, and KH570 coupling agent at a fixed mass mixing ratio, followed by 7 days of natural curing after demolding. Accelerated water aging tests were conducted at three temperature levels (25 °C, 40 °C, 60 °C) and four immersion durations (15 d, 30 d, 45 d, 60 d), including water absorption, compressive, splitting tensile, and flexural tests. Based on Fick's second diffusion law and the Arrhenius equation, we quantitatively analyzed moisture diffusion behavior and the evolution of mechanical degradation. The results indicate that the water absorption of UPC strictly follows Fickian diffusion, and that elevated temperature increases both the water absorption rate and the saturated water absorption capacity. The saturated water absorption ratios reached 0.15%, 0.16%, and 0.22% at 25 °C, 40 °C, and 60 °C, respectively, corresponding to apparent diffusion coefficients of 1.13 × 10-6, 1.67 × 10-6, and 4.52 × 10-6 mm/s. Long-term water aging progressively degrades the mechanical properties of UPC; after 60 d of immersion at 60 °C, the retention rates of compressive, splitting tensile, and flexural strength decreased to 88%, 85%, and 78%, respectively. We developed a physically coupled compressive strength prediction model based on moisture erosion depth and the associated reduction in effective bearing area. The ratio of model predictions to experimental data ranged from 0.93 to 0.98, indicating favorable conservative accuracy for engineering applications. When further combined with the Arrhenius relationship, the model enables extrapolation of the long-term mechanical properties of UPC under arbitrary service temperatures. This work provides theoretical support and a quantitative calculation framework for assessing the durability and predicting the service life of UPC hydraulic structures.