Evaluation of Waste-to-Hydrogen Infrastructure in Oman: A Mixed-Integer Programming Approach for Circular Economy Integration

Plastic waste gasification offers a dual-benefit pathway for hydrogen production and waste management in emerging economies. However, existing hydrogen infrastructure planning focuses predominantly on blue and green pathways, with limited integration of waste-derived hydrogen or spatially distributed waste availability constraints. This study determines optimal waste-to-hydrogen infrastructure deployment in Oman through 2040 using mixed-integer linear programming with verified techno-economic parameters. Results indicate that plastic waste can produce 21,997 tonnes H2 annually at a levelised cost of $2.88/kg, competitive with blue hydrogen ($1.80–2.50/kg) and significantly cheaper than current green hydrogen ($4–6/kg). The optimal network comprises four facilities at Muscat (500 TPD), Sohar (128 TPD), Salalah (192 TPD), and Nizwa (67 TPD), processing 275,000 tonnes of plastic waste whilst avoiding 137,000 tonnes of CO2-eq through landfill diversion. However, feedstock availability constrains production to 24% of base case demand (90,000 tonnes), positioning waste-to-H2 as a complementary pathway requiring integration with steam methane reforming for industrial hubs and electrolysis for the transport sector. Sensitivity analysis reveals hydrogen yield (±29% cost impact) and CAPEX (±20%) as critical parameters, with cost reduction pathways targeting $2.00–2.30/kg by 2035 through technology learning and co-benefit monetisation. Policy recommendations include extended producer responsibility schemes, government fleet procurement mandates, and regional waste trade agreements across the GCC. Waste-to-hydrogen demonstrates techno-economic viability as a guaranteed baseload contributor within diversified hydrogen strategies for Gulf economies.