Agent-Based Simulation Modeling of Multimodal Transport Flows in Transportation System of Kazakhstan

Background: Kazakhstan’s transport system plays a key role in Eurasian logistics due to its position along the Middle Corridor. However, multimodal freight transport remains under-optimized due to infrastructure bottlenecks, uneven cargo flows, and limited digital tools for forecasting and planning. Methods: This study presents the development of an agent-based simulation model for analyzing multimodal transportation in Kazakhstan. The model integrates railway, road, and maritime components, simulating cargo flows across export, import, and transit scenarios. Key agents include orders, transport vehicles, logistics hubs, and border checkpoints. The model is implemented in AnyLogic 8.9 and calibrated using a mix of official statistics, industry data, and field estimates. Results: The simulation replicates key logistics processes, identifies congestion points, and evaluates delivery performance under different scenarios. Experiments demonstrate how bottlenecks at terminals and border crossings affect delivery times, vehicle utilization, and hub load. The model allows testing infrastructure development options and scheduling policies. Conclusions: The approach enables a dynamic assessment of logistics efficiency under uncertainty and can support decision-making in transport planning. The novelty lies in the integrated simulation of multimodal freight flows with infrastructure constraints. The model serves as a foundation for digital twin applications and scenario-based planning.