Rangeland Degradation, Vegetation Dynamics, and Household Income in a Mongolian Pastoral System: Panel Evidence from Öndörshireet Soum

Degraded rangelands in semi-arid pastoral systems are widely associated with declining vegetation, soil carbon loss, and worsening household livelihoods. However, the mechanisms linking rangeland degradation to household income remain poorly understood, particularly in a panel-data context. This study examines how rangeland condition, vegetation dynamics, and livestock by-product underutilization are related to household income in Öndörshireet Soum, Töv Aimag, Mongolia. The analysis is based on a multi-source panel dataset covering 2018 to 2024, combining Sentinel-2 NDVI time series, soil organic carbon measurements from 120 permanent plots, and a five-wave survey of 114 households. The results indicate widespread and persistent degradation. Nearly 90 percent of monitored plots are at least moderately degraded; NDVI shows a steady decline over time; and average soil carbon levels remain well below those observed at a managed reference site. Over the same period, real household income declined despite a gradual increase in herd size. Econometric estimates show that vegetation condition is positively associated with income, whereas higher levels of by-product waste are associated with lower income, even after accounting for precipitation variability. The interaction results further suggest that the benefits of herd expansion weaken when production losses remains high. Taken together, these findings indicate that ecological decline and low value capture from livestock operate simultaneously to constrain pastoral livelihoods. Improvements in pasture condition alone appear insufficient to offset these pressures when a substantial share of livestock value is not recovered. While the results offer useful insights for rangeland policy, further evidence from multiple sites would be needed to assess causality and the extent to which these patterns apply beyond a single soum.