Flood Susceptibility Modeling Using MCDA–AHP and Multitemporal Dynamics Analysis—Case Study: The Banat Hydrographic Area (Romania)

The study analyzes flood susceptibility in the Banat Hydrographic Area (Romania) using an integrated GIS framework based on MCDA–AHP multicriteria analysis and the multitemporal evaluation of static and dynamic factors for two scenarios (2005 and 2023). The results highlight differences between the two scenarios, mainly driven by variations in precipitation: although the moderate class remains dominant (~56% of the area), the share of high and very high susceptibility classes is lower in 2023 (~6%) compared to 2005 (~17%), accompanied by an expansion of the low susceptibility class (~26% to ~37%). Validation using flood extent data from April 2005 shows that approximately 99% of the affected area falls within the moderate, high, and very high susceptibility classes (χ2 = 9475, p < 0.001). The multitemporal analysis indicates high stability (75% of the territory), while 25.35% exhibits transitions toward lower susceptibility classes. Dynamic factors show differentiated roles: precipitation exerts a dominant regional control (95.44% of the area), while LULC changes contribute locally. The differences between scenarios should be interpreted as a model response to climatic variability rather than as structural changes in intrinsic susceptibility. The approach provides a reproducible framework for susceptibility assessment and supports spatial planning and risk management.