Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Wuhan East Lake Based on the PLUS Model

Urban lake scenic areas serve as crucial ecological barriers but face acute conflicts between expansion and conservation. Existing research has often overlooked microscale landscape fragmentation and its associated ecological effects. Focusing on the Wuhan East Lake ecotourism scenic area (Wuhan East Lake), this study investigated the spatiotemporal impacts of micro-scale land-use transitions on ecosystem service value (ESV). To evaluate the historical evolution of ESV from 2010 to 2024, an improved equivalent factor method was coupled with a patch-generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model. Spatial autocorrelation and landscape pattern metrics were then incorporated to diagnose structural degradation and establish a foundation for simulating the four development scenarios for 2035. Results demonstrate that sporadic construction expansion led to a decline in total ESV from 2.445 to 2.216 billion CNY, driving a pronounced “core-hot vs. edge-cold” spatial disparity. Among future projections, the Sustainable Development pathway emerges as optimal, effectively balancing economic demands with the need to minimize ecological fragmentation. Ultimately, this study contributes to the literature by integrating microscale landscape fragmentation analysis with a PLUS-based multi-scenario simulation to provide a refined understanding of ecosystem service dynamics in urban lake systems, thereby offering a scientific reference for resilient spatial planning and policymaking.