Evolutionary Characteristics and Dynamic Mechanism of the Global Transportation Carbon Emission Spatial Correlation Network

This study constructs a global transportation carbon emission spatial correlation network via a modified gravity model and explores its evolutionary characteristics and dynamic mechanisms by integrating three-dimensional evolutionary analysis (node, overall, structural) and temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM). The main findings are as follows: (1) Global transportation carbon emission spatial correlation intensity keeps rising, with improved connectivity and integration, forming three regionally agglomerated correlation poles centered on the United States (America), China (Asia) and major European countries (Europe). (2) Network centrality distributes asymmetrically: Switzerland, Norway and the United States remain core nodes, while China, Japan and other Asian economies with strong direct correlation radiation are not in the core tier. (3) Third, evolutionary dynamics stem from the synergistic interaction of multidimensional attributes. ① Economic level positively drives bidirectional connection emission and attraction; economic scale and openness curb emission but boost attraction, while tertiary industry structure inhibits both. ② Only economic level and government efficiency exert significant positive effects on absdiff, fostering network heterophilic attraction. ③ Spatial and institutional proximity in edgecov effectively facilitate connection formation. ④ Endogenous network variables present a collaborative mechanism of reciprocity and transmission, constrained by network density. ⑤ Temporal effects show early connection structure forms path dependence, resulting in low dynamic variability and overall network stability.