Trends in Global Grape Production over Six Decades: Leading Countries, Market Concentration, and Future Projections Based on ARIMA Modeling

Viticulture is a globally significant economic activity; however, the scientific literature lacks in-depth, long-term studies integrating historical trends with future market concentration projections. This study fills this gap by analyzing global grape production dynamics and market structure over a 63-year period (1961–2023). The detection of structural breaks and the forecasting of yield trajectories using AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) models are crucial for the strategic planning of agricultural resources and enhancing viticultural resilience. Results indicate that while the global population increased 2.58-fold (1961–2023), grape production rose only 1.69-fold, leading to a decline in per capita availability. Although traditional leaders remain dominant, the combined share of the top five producers fell from 60% to 51.8%. The market concentration analysis Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) = 0.092; the Concentration Ratio (CR5) = 53.65%) for 2024–2030 suggests a monopolistic competition structure. The arithmetic mean of annual global production for the 2024–2030 period is projected to reach 79.42 million tons. China is expected to lead (23.11%), followed by Italy, the United States, France, and Spain. These findings highlight the necessity of precision viticulture and modern technology to stabilize yields and enhance competitiveness in high-value horticultural markets.