Farmland and Cropping Pattern Dynamics in Myanmar: Implications for Food Security and Sustainable Agriculture.

Myanmar, an agriculture-based economy, is one of the most important agricultural countries in mainland Southeast Asia. Although previous studies have documented changes in agricultural land-use and cropping patterns, trends in farmland area, cropping patterns, and food sufficiency across Myanmar's 14 states/regions remain limited. This study addresses these gaps by using land-cover data from the global 30 m dynamic dataset and statistical data from 2000 to 2025, and household surveys from selected areas. GIS-based spatial analysis, trend analysis, and multivariate analysis of variance were applied to analyze both the direction and magnitude of farmland and cropping pattern changes over time. The results showed that Myanmar's farmland area increased significantly (τ = +0.52, p < 0.01), expanding by 23.6% over the study period. Double cropping remained an important system, increasing by 55.9%. In the central dry zone, sufficient water availability showed the strongest effect on crop production and farmland area (F = 11.191, p < 0.001, η2p = 0.037), followed by soil fertility loss (F = 10.263, p < 0.001, η2p = 0.034). The analysis estimated that domestic consumption requirements were approximately 7.97 million tons of rice, 3.12 million tons of wheat, and 0.42 million tons of maize. These findings can support sustainable farmland use planning and inform food security policy decisions in Myanmar.