Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Populus adenopoda in China Using the MaxEnt Model

Populus adenopoda, an endemic tree species in China with considerable ecological and industrial value, is threatened by climate change-induced habitat loss. Understanding its spatial response is critical for conservation. This study employed the MaxEnt model with 181 occurrence records and seven environmental variables to project its current and future suitable habitats under multiple climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585 for the 2050s and 2090s). The model exhibited high predictive performance (AUC = 0.947 and TSS = 0.817). Annual precipitation and the minimum temperature of the coldest month were the dominant factors shaping its distribution. Currently, the total suitable habitat spans approximately 228.19 × 104 km2, predominantly in subtropical China. Future projections consistently revealed a stark degradation of highly suitable habitat, with losses of up to 78.81% under SSP585 by the 2090s, partially offset by an expansion of low-suitability areas. A pronounced northwestward shift of the habitat centroid indicates a potential migration toward higher elevations. These results provide a critical scientific foundation for developing climate-adaptive conservation strategies, including identifying priority areas and planning assisted migration, to ensure the long-term sustainability of P. adenopoda.