Techno-Economic Assessment of Electrochemical CO2 Reduction to Ethylene: A Cu10–Sn Catalyst Case Study and Performance Targets

Electrocatalytic CO2 reduction reaction (CO2RR) to ethylene (C2H4) has emerged as a promising approach for converting CO2 into valuable chemicals while utilizing renewable electricity. To facilitate the commercialization of this technology, a process-level techno-economic assessment (TEA) is constructed for a plant producing 100 tons/day of C2H4 from coal-power flue gas CO2 using a membrane electrode assembly (MEA) electrolyzer and downstream gas separations. The model integrates (i) flue gas CO2 capture by chemical absorption, (ii) CO2RR to C2H4 with H2 as the only co-product, and (iii) cathode off-gas separation by pressure swing adsorption (PSA) plus anode off-gas CO2 recovery and recycle. A Cu10–Sn catalyst measured in an H-cell is projected to MEA operation by scaling current density by 10×, yielding a “Case Study in This Article” scenario of j = 246 mA·cm−2 and FE(C2H4) = 48.74%. Under this scenario, the total cost is 592.61 thousand USD/day (5926 USD/ton), dominated by electricity (39.8%). Scenario analysis shows that the total cost can decrease to 76,755.0 USD/day (767.6 USD/ton) under a future-outlook case with improved electrolyzer performance and low-cost power, enabling a net profit of 19,945.0 USD/day at an ethylene selling price of 967 USD/ton. Sensitivity analysis identifies FE(C2H4), full-cell voltage, and electricity price as the most influential variables. The results translate laboratory catalyst metrics into industrial cost drivers and clarify quantitative performance targets for commercialization.