Quantifying the Trade-Offs Between Clean-Energy Expansion and Land Requirements: Evidence from Greece

Land availability is a critical dimension in high-renewable power generation strategies, as renewable technologies typically require substantially more area for infrastructure deployment and operational spacing than incumbent fossil-fuel-powered technologies. Land use has mainly been considered in energy system modeling studies as a post-processing evaluation, at a sub-national scale, or in non-Mediterranean regions. Consequently, there remains a gap in endogenizing land requirements within an energy planning optimization model for a Mediterranean country with high renewable potential, thereby allowing examination of the trade-offs between land use, mitigation and economic efficiency. In this study, we address this gap by focusing on the Greek power system, developing alternative land supply curves, and integrating them into an optimization model for the Greek power sector (OSeMOSYS-Greece). This approach generates a large ensemble of mitigation scenarios with varying land intensities and cost requirements. The results highlight strong substitution effects between land-intensive and less-land-intensive renewable technologies. Notably, onshore wind power generation is found to decline by up to approximately 70% by 2050 between the land-unconstrained case and the most stringent land-constrained scenario, chiefly substituted by offshore wind and, to a lesser extent, solar PV. Furthermore, under integrated energy-land planning, land occupation for power generation can be reduced to 3% of Greece’s total land area by 2050, compared to around 11% under a land-unconstrained pathway.