Physically Oriented SAGD Profitability Model for High-Viscosity Oil Fields

The development of high-viscosity oil fields requires technologies that provide not only the thermal mobilization of oil, but also an economically justified level of production with a high energy intensity of the process. One of the most effective technologies of this type is steam-assisted gravity oil drainage (SAGD), but its practical effectiveness is determined by the combined influence of reservoir geology, heat-transfer parameters, and market conditions. The paper proposes a reduced physics-guided model for the rapid technical and economic screening of SAGD in high-viscosity oil fields. The methodological contribution lies in linking geological screening, steam energy input, useful heat delivered to the reservoir, production response, and operating profit within one interpretable analytical chain suitable for pre-feasibility assessment. The study is based on an extended-scenario thermoeconomic analysis of representative heavy-oil development conditions. It is shown that, in a favorable mode, at a depth of about 400 m, oil viscosity of 15,000 cP, steam consumption of 500 t/day and heat-transfer coefficient of 0.7, the estimated production reaches 513–520 t/day, and the net profit is 20,000–22,000 USD/day. In an unfavorable mode, with a depth of about 1000 m, a viscosity of 20,000 cP, a heat-transfer coefficient of 0.4, and a high steam cost, production decreases to 210–230 t/day, and the economic result becomes negative. It has been established that the cost of steam, heat transfer, and the price of oil have a decisive impact on profitability.