A Hierarchical RNN-LSTM Model for Multi-Class Outage Prediction and Operational Optimization in Microgrids

Microgrids are becoming an innovative piece of modern energy systems as they provide locally sourced and resilient energy opportunities and enable efficient energy sourcing. However, microgrid operations can be greatly affected by sudden environmental changes, deviating demand, and unexpected outages. In particular, extreme climatic events expose the vulnerability of microgrid infrastructure and resilience, often leading to increased risk of system-wide outages. Thus, successful microgrid operation relies on timely and accurate outage predictions. This research proposes a data-driven machine learning framework for the optimized operation of a microgrid and predictive outage detection using a Recurrent Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (RNN-LSTM) architecture that reflects inherent temporal modeling methods. A time-aware embedding and masking strategy is employed to handle categorical and sparse temporal features, while mutual information-based feature selection ensures only the most relevant and interpretable inputs are retained for prediction. Moreover, the model addresses the challenges of experiencing rapid power fluctuations by looking at long-term learning dependency aspects within historical and real-time data observation streams. Two datasets are utilized: a locally developed real-time dataset collected from a 5 MW microgrid of Maple Cement Factory in Mianwali and a 15-year national power outage dataset obtained from Kaggle. Both datasets went through intensive preprocessing, normalization, and tokenization to transform raw readings into machine-readable sequences. The suggested approach attained an accuracy of 86.52% on the real-time dataset and 84.19% on the Kaggle dataset, outperforming conventional models in detecting sequential outage patterns. It also achieved a precision of 86%, a recall of 86.20%, and an F1-score of 86.12%, surpassing the performance of other models such as CNN, XGBoost, SVM, and various static classifiers. In contrast to these traditional approaches, the RNN-LSTM’s ability to leverage temporal context makes it a more effective and intelligent choice for real-time outage prediction and microgrid optimization.