Aftershock Production in Mean Field Avalanche Models with Static Fields.

Advanced seismic hazard assessment frameworks rely on stochastic models which include aftershock production in the form of branching or self-exciting point processes. Such empirical constructs are based on debated statistical laws observed across catalogs of natural seismicity, which lack a derivation from first principles. Here, we derive the statistics of aftershock production in a generalized mean-field model of avalanche dynamics with static random thresholds and bimodal relaxation. The number of direct aftershocks is statistically characterized as a renewal counting process accounting for Borel-distributed refractory intervals. At the large-number limit, the expected number of aftershocks is proportional to the size of the parent event with a characteristic scale linearly depending only on the branching parameter governing refractory intervals, whereas the variance follows a distinct parabolic dependence with the same parameter. This model provides a rationale for the overdispersion in aftershock production observed in field data with respect to the Poissonian offspring numbers of standard Hawkes models, but it cannot explain the ubiquity of self-similar aftershock production found in catalogs and lab experiments.