Research on the vessel passing capacity of the Changshan waterway.

The Changshan Waterway is a key passage connecting the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea in northern China, where complex navigational conditions and heavy vessel traffic place increasing pressure on navigational safety and operational efficiency. To quantitatively assess the throughput capacity of this waterway, this study analyzes vessel traffic characteristics using Automatic Identification System (AIS) data and develops a simulation-based capacity evaluation model implemented in AnyLogic. The results indicate that the current theoretical annual throughput capacity of the Changshan Waterway is approximately 248,000 vessels, with an overall capacity saturation level of 66.4%, approaching the critical operating threshold. On this basis, optimization strategies focusing on vessel speed regulation and longitudinal spacing management are proposed to further enhance the throughput capacity of the waterway.