Xiaoyan Yin, Shujun Hou, Xin Han, Baoyue Kuang
Traditional villages are vital carriers of cultural heritage and key foundations for rural revitalization and sustainable development, yet rapid urbanization increasingly threatens their survival, making it necessary to clarify their spatial distribution and driving mechanisms to support effective conservation and rational utilization. Yunnan Province, home to 777 nationally recognized traditional villages and the highest number in China, offers a representative context for such analysis. Methodologically, this study uses a 12 km × 12 km geographic grid (3005 cells) rather than administrative units. The count of catalogued traditional villages in each cell is taken as the dependent variable, and nine indicators selected from five dimensions (traffic accessibility, natural topography, climatic conditions, socioeconomic factors, and historical and cultural factors) serve as explanatory variables. Assuming that relationships between villages and their environment are spatially nonstationary and operate at multiple spatial scales, we combine spatial autocorrelation analysis with a multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model to detect clustering patterns and estimate location-specific coefficients and bandwidths. The results indicate that: (1) traditional villages in Yunnan exhibit significant clustering, with over 60% concentrated in Dali, Baoshan, Honghe, and Lijiang; (2) the spatial pattern follows a “more in the northwest, fewer in the southeast, dense in mountainous areas” distribution, shaped by both natural and socioeconomic factors; (3) natural geographic factors show the strongest associations, with sunshine duration and water availability strongly promoting village presence, while slope exhibits regionally differentiated effects; (4) socioeconomic development and transportation accessibility are generally negatively associated with village distribution, but in tourism-driven areas such as Dali and Lijiang, road improvements have facilitated protection and revitalization; and (5) historical and cultural factors, particularly proximity to nationally protected cultural heritage sites, contribute to spatial clustering and long-term preservation. The MGWR model achieves strong explanatory power (R2 = 0.555, adjusted R2 = 0.495) and outperforms OLS and standard GWR, confirming its suitability for analyzing the spatial mechanisms of traditional villages. Finally, the study offers targeted recommendations for the conservation and sustainable development of traditional villages in Yunnan.