Human Activities and Climate Separately Influence the Global Dispersal and Colonization Potential of Lantana camara L.

The global invasion of the shrub L. camara poses a significant threat to ecosystems. Understanding the roles of human activity and climate in driving its spread is crucial for management. This study aimed to quantify its global invasion dynamics, identify key drivers, and predict future distribution shifts. We constructed a high-precision ensemble species distribution model by integrating historical global occurrence records, multi-source environmental variables (climate and human activity indices), and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The global invasion showed a clear four-stage acceleration pattern (1900–1960, 1961–1980, 1981–2000, and 2001–2025). Variable importance and response curve analysis revealed a two-phase “dispersal–colonization” mechanism: human activities (e.g., gross domestic product) acted as a “dispersal amplifier,” while a climatic factor (isothermality) served as a critical “colonization filter.” Under two future climate scenarios assuming unchanged human activity patterns, the potential suitable habitat of L. camara exhibits structural changes while maintaining stable total area. The highly suitable areas continue to shrink, with nearly half the area lost by the end of the century under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 pathway, while low-suitability zones expand significantly—yet the overall suitable habitat remains stable. Under SSP1-2.6, structural changes in suitable habitats occur more gradually. The study clarifies the distinct roles of human activity and climate in the invasion process, providing a scientific basis for differentiated global risk management strategies targeting dispersal pathways and colonization thresholds.