Influence Mechanism of Rock Compressive Mechanical Properties Under Freeze-Thaw Cycles: Insights from Machine Learning

In plateau and high-altitude areas, freeze-thaw cycles often alter the uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) of rock, thereby impacting the stability of geotechnical engineering. Acquiring rock samples in these areas for UCS testing is often time-consuming and labor-intensive. This study developed a hybrid model based on the XGBoost algorithm to predict the UCS of rock under freeze-thaw conditions. First, a database was created containing longitudinal wave velocity (Vp), rock porosity (P), rock density (D), freezing temperature (T), number of freeze-thaw cycles (FTCs), and UCS. Four swarm intelligence optimization algorithms—artificial bee colony, Newton–Raphson, particle swarm optimization, and dung beetle optimization—were used to optimize the maximum iterations, depth, and learning rate of the XGBoost model, thereby enhancing model accuracy and developing four hybrid models. The four hybrid models were compared to a single XGBoost model and a random forest (RF) model to evaluate overall performance, and the optimal model was selected. The results demonstrate that all hybrid models outperform the single models. The XGBoost model optimized by the sparrow algorithm (R2 = 0.94, RMSE = 10.10, MAPE = 0.095, MAE = 7.22) performed best in predicting UCS. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were used to assess the marginal contribution of each input variable to the UCS prediction of freeze-thawed rock. This study is expected to provide a reference for predicting the UCS of freeze-thawed rock using machine learning.