AHP-Based Ranking of Durum Wheat Management Scenarios in a Mediterranean Environment

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied to six agronomic scenarios for durum wheat (Triticum durum Desf.) in the Capitanata plain (Apulia, southern Italy), combining three sowing dates (15 October, 1 November, and 15 November) with two water regimes (rainfed; supplemental irrigation at flowering). Five performance indicators were derived from AquaCrop-GIS simulations coupled with cradle-to-gate life-cycle assessment: grain yield, CO2-equivalent emissions (CO2_eq), carbon footprint (CFP), total water consumption (TotW), and water footprint (WFP). Six theoretical decision profiles were defined through a symmetric weight scheme (w = 0.60 for the dominant criterion, w = 0.10 for each of the remaining four; balanced profile with equal weights). The rankings revealed a systematic inversion between absolute and ratio indicators: under absolute-metric profiles, the lowest-yielding scenario paradoxically ranked first because reduced productivity mechanically lowered per-hectare resource consumption, whereas under ratio-metric and balanced profiles, early-November rainfed sowing consistently led the rankings. Switching point analyses quantified the weight thresholds at which leadership transitions occurred, providing a continuous sensitivity assessment of the dominant weight, and the AHP procedure was also applied to the 72 simulation replicates spanning the soil × climatic-cell variability of the 2013–2023 dataset to obtain empirical rank distributions for each scenario under each profile. The results highlight that the choice between absolute and ratio environmental indicators is a substantive methodological decision that directly affects the ranking of agronomic alternatives in multi-criteria evaluation.