Digital Inclusive Finance, Rural Industrial Integration, and Agricultural Economic Resilience in China: A Threshold Mediation Analysis

Digital inclusive finance has grown rapidly in China in recent years, yet its effect on agricultural economic resilience remains debated. This study investigates the effect of digital inclusive finance on agricultural economic resilience, focusing on the mediating role of rural industry integration. Using annual panel data covering 29 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2021, we employ two-way fixed-effect panel regressions, mediation analysis, threshold analysis, instrumental variable estimation, and spatial econometric models. The results show that digital inclusive finance has a significant negative effect on agricultural economic resilience, and this finding is robust across alternative specifications and instrumental variable estimations. Rural industry integration serves as an important transmission channel, with the indirect effect accounting for approximately one-third of the total effect. The two stages of this mediation pathway are moderated by distinct threshold variables: rural digital infrastructure positively moderates the effect of digital inclusive finance on rural industry integration, while government fiscal support negatively moderates the effect of rural industry integration on agricultural economic resilience. The spatial analysis further reveals that digital inclusive finance generates negative spatial spillovers onto neighboring provinces. Based on these findings, we suggest that the government continue to invest in rural digital infrastructure, guide digital finance toward rural industry integration in underdeveloped regions, and maintain fiscal support at an appropriate level to preserve the vitality of integrated industries.