Assessing the Resilience of Regenerative Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: A Scenario-Based Systemic Analysis Framework

Regenerative agriculture (RA) offers a critical pathway for climate change mitigation and adaptation, yet its implementation is often hindered by conceptual ambiguity and a lack of standardized assessment frameworks. This study employs a comparative systemic analysis, integrated with a Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) framework, to evaluate the resilience of medium-sized RA farms (50–200 ha)—a segment representing the professional backbone of European agriculture—under varying infrastructural and policy conditions. By synthesizing recent standardized metrics from the global literature, the research constructs three operational contexts: Context A (Integrated High-Performance), characterized by robust support and digital monitoring; Context B (Transitional/Fragmented), reflecting partial adoption with limited resources; and Context C (Maladaptive), representing systemic barriers. The results reveal a significant “Resilience Gap” between theoretical potential and practical reality. Specifically, the analysis identifies that ecological practices alone (e.g., cover cropping, no-till) are insufficient to guarantee economic resilience without the support of Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems. In transitional contexts, the inability to verify ecosystem services prevents farmers from accessing financial buffers, rendering the system vulnerable to climate shocks. This study concludes that enhancing RA resilience requires a paradigmatic shift from practice-based subsidies to outcome-based incentives, underpinned by accessible MRV technologies and standardized socio-economic indicators.