Lilan Chen, Youxuan Sun, Yunjing Tang
The pig farming industry is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions in China, the world’s largest pork producer and consumer. However, existing studies have paid limited attention to the provincial differences, dynamic evolution, and spatial spillover effects of carbon emissions from pig farming. Based on panel data from 31 provinces from 2008 to 2020, this study used the life cycle assessment method to estimate carbon emissions from feed input, pig breeding, and energy consumption. Kernel density estimation and the Global Moran’s I index are used to examine the spatial–temporal evolution of carbon emissions, and the spatial Durbin model is applied to identify the influencing factors and their spatial effects. It is found that (1) between 2008 and 2020, carbon emissions from pig farming fluctuated across four stages but declined by the end of the study period, while carbon emission intensity showed a clear downward trend. (2) Pig farming showed a trend to shift from coastal regions to inland regions, while national carbon emission intensity decreased and inter-provincial disparities narrowed. (3) Carbon emissions from China’s pig farming industry exhibited significant spatial aggregation and positive spatial autocorrelation. (4) Environmental regulation directly reduced local carbon emissions, while industrial agglomeration level, pork share in meat structure, scale, and environmental regulation showed significant spatial spillover effects. Overall, economic development level, industrial agglomeration level, technological progress, and environmental regulation contributed to carbon emission reduction. These findings indicate that regional cooperation, optimized industrial layout, and targeted environmental regulation are essential for promoting the low-carbon transition of China’s pig farming industry.