The impact of agricultural labor aging on wheat production efficiency

This study draws on data from the 2020 China Rural Revitalization Survey (CRRS) to examine the impact of agricultural labor force aging on wheat production efficiency at the household level, with a particular focus on the moderating role of agricultural mechanization. The results reveal that the relationship between labor force aging and wheat production efficiency is not linear but exhibits an inverted U-shaped pattern. Production efficiency peaks when the average age of a household’s agricultural labor force approaches 55 and declines thereafter. Agricultural mechanization significantly moderates this relationship, alleviating the negative effects of labor force aging on production efficiency. Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the adverse impact is more pronounced among households that depend more heavily on grain or agricultural income, and in major grain-producing regions, indicating notable regional and structural variations. To address the challenges posed by an aging agricultural workforce, policy efforts should focus on establishing incentive mechanisms to attract young talent back to rural areas to engage in modern agricultural production; advancing agricultural mechanization to alleviate labor shortages and address the issue of “how to grow grain”; and fostering new types of agricultural business entities to promote appropriately scaled land management and address the question of “who will grow grain.”