Ensuring food security: how does digital inclusive finance affect the new quality productivity of grain

Background Accelerating the development of new-quality productive forces in grain is a crucial focus for ensuring effective grain supply and food security in China. Against this backdrop, the question of whether digital inclusive finance (DIF), as an emerging financial model empowered by digital technology, can effectively enhance grain new-quality productivity (Nqpg) has become an important academic and practical issue. Methods This study utilizes panel data from 31 Chinese provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) between 2012 and 2022. It empirically examines the impact of DIF on Nqpg using a dual fixed-effects model, alongside mechanism tests and threshold effect models to analyze transmission pathways and nonlinear characteristics. Results (1) DIF significantly promotes the enhancement of Nqpg, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity analyses. (2) Mechanism testing indicates that DIF enhances Nqpg primarily by elevating the level of scientific and technological innovation and promoting the intensification of agricultural production. (3) Threshold effect analysis reveals a significant nonlinear increasing effect of DIF in driving Nqpg development. (4) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of DIF on Nqpg is significantly stronger in major grain-producing regions than in non-major grain-producing regions. Moreover, the positive effect of DIF on Nqpg is more pronounced in regions with lower levels of traditional financial development compared to those with higher levels. Conclusion To further leverage the developmental dividends of DIF, enhance Nqpg, and ensure national food security, it is recommended to strengthen DIF infrastructure, establish a collaborative mechanism between DIF and technological innovation, and optimize the regional development layout of DIF.