War-risk resilience in Jordanian construction projects: expert evaluation of a trigger–operations–contract framework and a contract-operationalization toolkit in urban contexts

Armed conflicts and geopolitical crises increasingly disrupt construction supply chains, financing, and project governance. In politically exposed regions, even indirect escalation of war can trigger security restrictions, corridor closures, import delays, and banking frictions. Jordan’s construction sector is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on imported materials and corridor-based logistics, and because many projects already face chronic delays under normal conditions. This study develops and evaluates a project-level war-risk management framework for Jordanian construction that operationalizes a Trigger–Operations–Contract (TOC) logic: monitored escalation signals (triggers) are explicitly linked to predefined site responses (operations) and to contract-compliant administrative steps. The framework comprises eight components: Protection & Preparedness; Situational Monitoring & Triggers; Supply Chain & Operations; Contract, Force Majeure & Claims; Stakeholder & Communication Management; Financial & Business Continuity; Risk Register, Review & Learning; and Jordan & Regional Context. It is designed for two-tier deployment (“Full” for large/complex projects and “Lite” for typical smaller projects). Structured expert opinions ( n = 50) were collected through five evaluation questions (coverage, contextual realism, logical coherence, practicality, and improvement priorities), each answered with an optimistic/most-likely/pessimistic orientation and an open-ended justification. A transparent, rule-based coding protocol was applied to 250 responses and validated by independent double-coding of a 50-comment sample (94.6% agreement). Results showed that experts base perceived adequacy on contract operability and procedural clarity. Dominant themes include aligning the trigger–action chain with contract administration and FIDIC-type requirements, explicitly defining triggers/thresholds/matrices, and establishing clear procedures for notice/evidence/records. Implementation concerns are substantial: experts call for a simplified “Lite” version for typical projects and warn that an overly heavy framework may “sit on the shelf.” In response, this study proposes a TOC-based contract-operationalization annex and a practical toolkit (trigger matrix, war-risk register, ERP outline, communication plan, and notice letter templates). The framework is presented as a contribution to the resilience and continuity of urban construction projects in Jordan and aligns with SDG 11 (Sustainable cities and communities).