GIS-based public transport network optimization in UNESCO World Heritage cities in the example of Bukhara, Uzbekistan

UNESCO World Heritage cities must reconcile historic preservation with modern urban mobility, yet quantitative evidence on the effectiveness of heritage-compatible transport interventions remains limited. This study evaluates the Bukhara Transport Master Plan (2025–2026) through GIS-based scenario modeling, traffic microsimulation (PTV Vision® Vissim), and econometric analysis to test whether heritage conservation and mobility improvements can be simultaneously optimized. A quasi-experimental design compared three scenarios — baseline (2024), do-nothing (2026), and with-plan (2026) — using primary data from a stratified population survey (n = 3,179; ±1.7% margin of error), video-based traffic recording at 62 intersections capturing 2,815,827 vehicle movements via semi-automated YOLOv8 classification, and manual passenger observations at 30 bus terminals (42,448 events). Accessibility was measured using 300-meter buffer coverage and 30-minute isochrone analysis across 163 transport analysis zones. The planned scenario projects that soft measures — route restructuring, signal coordination, and station upgrades — can double the public transit modal share from 14% to 30% (p < 0.001), reduce average travel time by 40% (from 32.3 to 23.4 minutes; p < 0.001, η² = 0.27), expand spatial coverage from 57.5 to 74.8 km², and improve 30-minute accessibility from 66.3% to 81.2% ( p < 0.001, η² = 0.34), all without physical alteration of the historic urban fabric. Corridor-level microsimulation demonstrated a 15% reduction in CO, NOx, and VOC emissions (all p < 0.001, Cohen’s d > 1.4). Coverage-ridership regression (R 2 = 0.97) indicated that each additional km² of network coverage generates 5,789 daily passengers, with geographically weighted regression revealing that commercial corridors yield approximately 75% higher ridership elasticity than peripheral residential zones. The counterfactual scenario underscores the cost of inaction: a projected decline in accessibility to 47.5% and a 6.9-minute increase in travel time. These findings empirically corroborate the heritage-mobility compatibility thesis and provide a transferable methodological framework for achieving SDG 11.2 within heritage city constraints.