Managing global risks of invasive aquatic plants under climate change: ensemble species distribution modeling and economic cost projections

Introduction Invasive aquatic plants obstruct waterways, disrupt fisheries, and cause significant economic, social, and ecological impacts. Predicting their potential distribution and associated economic losses under climate change is critical for global risk management. Methods This study aimed to predict the global potential distribution of four major invasive aquatic plants ( Pontederia crassipes, Pistia stratiotes, Cabomba caroliniana, Alternanthera philoxeroides ) and assess associated economic losses under current and future climates using species distribution modeling (Biomod2) and the Invacost database. Results Current high‑suitability habitats for P. crassipes and P. stratiotes span South Asia, Africa, Europe, Oceania, and the Americas; A. philoxeroides concentrates in South Asia, the southeastern US, South America, and parts of Europe/Africa; C. caroliniana suitability is more limited to South/Southeast Asia and southeastern Americas. Future projections indicate significant northward expansion for all species, with P. crassipes and P. stratiotes experiencing the largest habitat increases (9.99% and 10.21%, respectively). Key environmental drivers include mean annual temperature, population density, and coldest season temperature. Global economic losses from 1990–2025 are estimated at $7,380.30 million (average $205.01 million/year), showing a rising trend. Discussion This work provides critical insights for global monitoring, early detection, rapid response, and strategic management of invasive aquatic plants, offering theoretical support for invasion biology under climate change and informing policy decisions and public awareness efforts.