Vegetation dynamics and its driving force in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

Qinghai Lake Basin is the largest endorheic basin in the northeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). The vegetation dynamics are subject to dual pressures from climate change and human activities. Previous studies have neglected the interactions among driving factors, as well as the impact of climate factors on vegetation under the regulatory role of topographic elements. The present study utilises MODIS-EVI data from 2001 to 2022 to estimate Fractional Vegetation cover (FVC) and to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation cover through trend analysis and other methods. Furthermore, it elucidates the effect of topographical factors on vegetation distribution. Finally, geographic detectors and the partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) were employed to quantify the impact intensity of driving factors (including climate, human activities, topography, and soil) and analyze their interactive effects and influence pathways on vegetation cover. The results suggested that (1) FVC in the Qinghai Lake Basin increased significantly (1.38×10 - ³/a); notably, low-grade FVC areas exhibiting high volatility. (2) The terrain effect displays clear differentiation characteristics. FVC peaks in the elevation range of 3500–3800 m, FVC dispersion increased with slope, and semishady/shady slopes dominated FVC distribution. The vegetation improvement type is concentrated on low-elevation, flat slopes and shady slopes, whereas the vegetation degradation type is distributed on middle- and low-elevation slopes and semipositive slopes. (3) Climatic factors primarily exert a direct positive influence on FVC. As far as climate factors are concerned, the effects of temperature and precipitation on FVC do not act independently, but act together through synergistic effects, with temperature showing a more significant driving effect. Topography primarily affects FVC indirectly by regulating water and heat conditions (temperature and precipitation). Each factor possesses an optimal range (elevation: 3400–4100 m, precipitation: 325–550 mm, temperature: −6 to 0°C). When changes in these driving factors exceed the optimal range, FVC is suppressed. On a temporal scale, climate change and human activities are the dominant factors influencing the FVC in the Qinghai Lake Basin. The positive effects of human factors on FVC have strengthened.