Net radiation intensifies trade-offs among ecosystem services in the Zoige Wetland

Introduction Understanding the spatiotemporal trade-offs and synergies in ecosystem services can benefit regional ecosystem sustainable management. However, previous studies have focused mainly on water or carbon drivers, while the dominant factors driving ecosystem service trade-offs remain underexplored. Methods Therefore, this study set the Zoige Wetland as the study area and utilized the InVEST model to assess key ecosystem services-including carbon sequestration, mean species abundance, soil conservation, and water yield from 2001 to 2020. Spearman correlation analysis and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were applied to quantify the trade-offs and synergies among these ecosystem services. XGBoost model combined with SHAP interpretation was employed to identify the dominant factors and threshold influencing the trade-offs in ecosystem services. Last, Zonation model was used to assess ecological restoration priority to avoid ecosystem services trade-offs in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) between 2030 and 2060. Results Results indicated that ecosystem services have an increasing tendency from 2001 to 2020, especially in soil conservation and water yield. Carbon sequestration had a trade-off relationship with soil conservation and biodiversity, with Pearson correlation coefficients of -0.267 and -0.143, respectively. Net radiation, wind, precipitation and aridity are the dominant drivers for the trade-off of carbon sequestration, biodiversity, soil conservation, and water yield, with the threshold are 0.61, 0.86, 0.63 and 0.83, respectively. Discussion The impact of net radiation on the trade-off in carbon sequestration exhibits a gradual increase, followed by a sharp rise afterward. The reason may be that net radiation, as the primary driver of surface energy balance, regulates the partitioning of energy into latent heat (evapotranspiration), sensible heat, and ground heat flux. This energy redistribution directly affects soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and plant productivity. This study contributes to understanding of the interactions among regional ecosystem services and promoting sustainable ecosystem management.