Low carbon transition and green total factor productivity of manufacturing firms: empirical evidence from low-carbon city pilot policy

Introduction To advance low‐carbon transformation and sustainable growth, low‐carbon city pilot policy (LCP) was first implemented in China in 2010, and the scope of pilot cities has been gradually expanded in the subsequent years. Manufacturing enterprises, as microscopic subjects of the national economy, are leading force in building a new engine of green growth. Methods Taking LCP as a quasi‐natural experiment, this study leverages a multi‐temporal difference‐in‐difference model to investigate how this policy affects green total factor productivity (GTFP) in the manufacturing sector and the corresponding potential mechanisms, where the research is grounded in panel data of Chinese manufacturing enterprises listed on the A‐share markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen (2005–2024). Results It is found in this study that LCP exerts a positive effect on manufacturing enterprises' GTFP, with the conclusion holds steady following multiple robustness checks. State-owned and highly polluting manufacturing enterprises experience a more pronounced boost in their GTFP. Through mechanism test, it is demonstrated that the policy drives the improvement of GTFP chiefly via advancing green innovation and increasing green output. Discussion These findings offer empirical evidence for the effectiveness of LCP in promoting green growth among manufacturing enterprises, with implications for extending similar policies to other regions and enterprise types.