Mathematical model analysis for dynamics and control of African cassava mosaic virus and East African cassava mosaic Cameroon virus co-infections

Introduction Cassava is a key staple crop in many developing countries but is severely affected by African cassava mosaic virus (ACMV) and East African cassava mosaic Cameroon virus (EACMCMV). Co-infection by these viruses often results in more severe yield losses than single infections. This study develops a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics and control of ACMV and EACMCMV co-infections. Methods A deterministic compartmental model describing cassava plants and whitefly vectors was formulated to capture single infections and co-infection dynamics. Control measures, including resistant varieties, disease-free planting materials, modern agricultural practices, and vector removal, were incorporated. Equilibrium and stability analyses were performed, and basic reproduction numbers were derived using the next-generation matrix method. Numerical simulations were conducted to support the analytical results. Results The disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable when the relevant basic reproduction number is less than one, indicating possible eradication under effective control. When it exceeds unity, endemic and oscillatory dynamics may occur. The reproduction number for the co-infection model exceeds those of the single-virus models, suggesting greater persistence and severity. Simulations show that combining resistant varieties and vector control substantially reduces infection levels. Discussion Integrated control strategies are essential to reduce co-infection burdens and maintain reproduction numbers below unity. The model provides quantitative guidance for improving cassava disease management and supporting food security.