A study on cropping pattern changes in Andhra Pradesh: A Markov chain approach

Cropping pattern changes have important implications for agricultural sustainability, resource use efficiency and food security, particularly in agrarian states like Andhra Pradesh. The present study analysed structural changes in cropping patterns in Andhra Pradesh during 2013-14 to 2023-24 using secondary data obtained from Seasonal Crop Reports published by the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of Andhra Pradesh. A Markov Chain approach was employed to estimate transition probabilities and examine crop retention and shifts among major crops during Kharif and Rabi seasons. The results revealed that paddy remained the most stable crop in both Kharif (91.8%) and Rabi (79.7%), indicating strong crop persistence. Pulses such as black gram and green gram showed moderate retention, while millets such as ragi, bajra and korra exhibited high instability and continuously lost area to dominant crops. The findings indicate increasing crop concentration towards paddy and pulses, highlighting the need for policy interventions that promote crop diversification, efficient water use and climate-resilient agriculture.