Trends and forecasting of major chemical fertilizer consumption in Telangana: State and district-level analysis

Fertilizer use plays a crucial role in enhancing agricultural productivity, necessitating an assessment of its growth, instability, and future demand. This study analyses the consumption of major chemical fertilizers (N, P, and K) in Telangana using district-level data (2015–16 to 2024–25) and four decades of state-level data. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Coefficient of Variation (CV), Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI), and ARIMA models were employed for growth, instability, and forecasting analyses. State-level NPK consumption increased from 1,316.25 to 1,879.03 thousand tonnes, while district-level trends varied considerably. Nizamabad recorded the highest growth (5.26%), whereas most districts showed declining fertilizer use. Potash exhibited the highest instability, and the N:P:K ratio remained imbalanced in most districts. ARIMA forecasts indicate that total fertilizer consumption in Telangana will increase by about 11 per cent, from 19.06 lakh tonnes in 2025 to 20.93 lakh tonnes by 2029.