Tonmoy Kumar Roy, Md Shoebuj Zaman, Ashikul Islam Pollob, Md Asadujjaman, Md Menhazul Abedin, Md Merajul Islam, Md Maniruzzaman
This study was designed to identify the changing patterns of the potential covariates that influence hypertension stages (SHT) over time. The study used two cross-sectional datasets (BDHS 2017/18 and 2022), which had 12,189 and 13,843 respondents aged ≥18 years. The χ2analysis examined the association between the selected covariates and SHT as well as their influence on SHT using multinomial logistic regression (MLR) models (p < 0.05). Moreover, a SHAP-based approach was used to quantify the contribution of each covariate to the predictive performance for SHT classification. By adjusting for age and gender, the MLR-based model showed that seven significant covariates were found for SHT in both BDHS 2017/18 and 2022. Both MLR and SHAP-based approaches identified education, BMI, wealth index, diabetes status, and division as the principal determinants of SHT for BDHS 2022 dataset. Education and BMI were a significant and consistent predictors of SHT in both survey years. Respondents with secondary education and obese had 1.4 times (AOR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8) and 5.3 times (AOR: 5.3, 95% CI: 3.2-8.7) higher odds of having controlled hypertension (CHT) and severe hypertension in 2022. The respondents from middle and rich households also had higher odds of mild hypertension in 2017/18, whereas only rich respondents were found to have CHT and mild hypertension in 2022. Marital status showed a changing association with SHT over time, with divorced respondents showing a significantly higher risk of developing severe hypertension in 2022. These findings highlight the need for geographically targeted and socioeconomically tailored public health interventions in Bangladesh.