Testing the Material Kuznets Curve Hypothesis in Turkey: The Role of Mineral Resources and Urbanization

This study tests the Material Kuznets Curve (MKC) hypothesis for Turkey (2000-2021) using ARDL bounds testing, examining relationships between material footprint per capita, economic growth, mineral rents, and urbanization. Utilizing UNEP Global Material Flows Database and World Bank indicators, we estimate ARDL(1,1,1,1,1) specification. The bounds F-statistic (57.71) substantially exceeds critical values, confirming robust cointegration. The error correction term (ECT = -0.955, p < 0.001) indicates 95.5% annual disequilibrium correction. Long-run results reveal mineral rents exhibit strong positive effect on material footprint (β = 3.919, p = 0.004), supporting resource curse hypothesis in environmental context. GDP per capita shows significant positive relationship (β = 0.003, p = 0.011), while GDP² remains insignificant (p = 0.328), indicating Turkey has not reached MKC turning point. Findings provide first joint analysis of material footprint, mineral rents, and urbanization for Turkey, with important implications for sustainable resource management and circular economy transitions in rapidly industrializing economies. Results suggest active policy interventions necessary for decoupling economic growth from material consumption, particularly targeting resource governance and infrastructure development aligned with SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption) and SDG 8 (Sustainable Growth).